The 4680-cell batteries are (or were) one of Tesla’s most ambitious projects, but their development has been fraught with pitfalls. And the limit of Elon Musk’s patience with this project might have a date already marked on the calendar.
The 4680 cells were announced in 2020 as a “break” with the current state of the art, batteries that promised to improve everything, and much, on current batteries. Up to 6 times more powerful, cheaper to manufacture, faster to charge and capable of offering 16% more battery life. On paper, everything looked fantastic.
But these cells have another important aspect: they are the first to be entirely developed by Tesla. The American company wanted to design and manufacture its own batteries in order to reduce its dependence on external suppliers, such as Panasonic or BYD (its two main suppliers at present). This would allow it to increase the production of its vehicles at lower cost.
But the development of 4680 cells, and especially their mass production, is far from easy. In fact, trying to make them at the necessary scale turns out to be a nightmare. Tesla has managed to increase production to gigawatt hours, but production remains well below the company’s expectations. Currently, these cells are only used in the Cybertruck, the brand’s electric pickup, and in some Model Y units on a trial basis.
If the problems with the 4680 cell are not resolved, Tesla could abandon the project. Elon Musk, who is always at the forefront of his company’s projects, has set the end of the year to find a solution. According to The Information, Elon Musk told the team working on these batteries in May to redouble their efforts to reduce costs and improve the technology, giving them until the end of the year to do so.
In addition to the problems of producing them at a sufficient scale, the cells (so-called because they measure 46 millimeters in diameter and 80 millimeters in height) have a somewhat thorny technical problem that can cause the batteries to fail in use, related to the coating of the dry cathode, a key technology in improving the performance of the 4680 cells.
Is Tesla likely to throw in the towel on this project? There is a limit to patience and the fact of not having the expected profitability is taking its toll (never said better). This is not a decision to be taken lightly, since it was announced four years ago and the problems persist. However, Tesla has invested a lot of money in this technology, not only in development and research; a good part of the Texas gigafactory was built around the production of 4680 cells. Abandoning the project would be a radical decision and would have a significant impact on its strategy. Furthermore, Tesla recently stated that by the end of the year, it plans to improve its cost per kWh compared to that of its suppliers. Although on a smaller scale than expected, it could be strategically interesting to have its own cells. As the end of the year approaches, we will see if Tesla manages to solve the problems of the 4680 or abandons the project, at least on a large scale.