In the labyrinth of global geopolitics, the distribution of Russian oil represents an increasingly complex puzzle, particularly due to the emergence of an “invisible” fleet of oil tankers. This fleet, operating in the shadows of international regulations, highlights not only the ingenuity of sanctions evasion strategies but also the growing challenges facing global energy and environmental policies.
A fleet designed for shade
The implementation of tough economic sanctions by the United States, the European Union and other international actors has pushed Russia to find innovative methods to maintain its oil exports. At the heart of this strategy is a fleet of ships which, through a series of elaborate tactics, manages to evade the usual controls of international trade. This fleet allows Russia to continue to supply certain markets, despite Western attempts to restrict its energy revenues.
The “gray fleet”, formed since the invasion.
In fact, anonymous buyers have spent approximately $3.8 billion on 187 tankers since the war began.
In November, the Gray Fleet accounted for more than half of western Russia’s oil exports for the first time, according to Kpler data. Gray Fleet and Black Fleet ships, sometimes collectively referred to as the “ghost fleet”, use opaque ownership structures, with routes passing through offshore jurisdictions where corporate secrecy is required, in order to complicate the application of sanctions against real owners.
The West’s goal was to stifle Russia economically. Indeed, if Russia were not allowed to sell crude oil above $60, profits from each barrel of crude exported would decline. Putin had prepared for this in advance.
According to Bloomberg, “these companies built up a fleet of at least 270 tankers, most purchased from Western companies that would otherwise likely have sold them for scrap.”
Tankers involved in transporting Russian crude oil (Source: Bloomberg – “How an Aging Armada and Mystery Traders Keep Russian Oil Afloat”).
The Bloomberg article titled “How an Aging Armada and Mystery Traders Keep Russian Oil Afloat” describes the transfer between the Amber 6 and the Catalina 7 on February 21, 2023 in international waters (about 40 miles east of Ceuta). A transfer of 730,000 barrels of oil that lasted more than 30 hours.
How does this invisible fleet work?
The operations of this fleet are characterized by their discretion and complexity. Vessels involved in these trades frequently turn off their automatic identification systems (AIS), making their traceability difficult. Cargo transfers on the high seas, from one ship to another, allow the origin of oil to be masked, thus facilitating its entry into markets sensitive to supply sources. These practices, while technically legal in some cases, pose significant challenges to the enforcement of international sanctions.
Geopolitical implications
The effectiveness of this invisible fleet highlights the limits of economic sanctions as a foreign policy tool. While the sanctions aim to economically isolate Russia and reduce its ability to finance its military, the reality of the global oil trade and the dependence of many countries on Russian energy complicate this ambition. This situation reveals the complexity of global economic interdependencies and the difficulty of quickly and efficiently disconnecting established energy networks.
Towards a new energy era?
The revelation of the existence and success of the invisible Russian fleet prompts broader reflection on the future of global energy. It highlights the urgency of accelerating the transition to renewable energy sources that are less dependent on volatile geopolitical dynamics. Technological innovation, coupled with strengthened international cooperation, appears essential to overcome the challenges posed by fossil fuels and to move towards sustainable and environmentally friendly energy security.
The current situation, with its invisible fleets and shadow play, could well be a catalyst for a significant change in the way the world approaches energy. By recognizing the limitations of traditional approaches and embracing the possibilities offered by green technologies, it is possible to rethink the foundations of our global energy system. In doing so, we can not only address the immediate challenges posed by sanctions and circumventions, but also work towards a more stable, secure and sustainable energy future.