It has been more than two years since Europe adopted a regulation that radically changed the automotive industry, leading to a general change in strategy and many commercial doubts. From January 1, 2035, the sale of combustion cars will be banned in Europe, with a few exceptions. While it seemed certain that the days of the combustion engine were numbered in Europe, several influential political figures expressed doubts.
The current law, which bans thermal vehicles by 2035, does not seek to impose zero-emission technology. However, it virtually reduces the options to electric vehicles powered by batteries or hydrogen fuel cells. But Ursula von der Leyen, recently elected president of the European Parliament, announced that she would propose an amendment to European policy to allow the use of synthetic fuels that have no impact on the environment. This clause would allow current combustion vehicles to continue operating with only minor adjustments, at least in theory.
What will Europe decide in two years?
In March 2023, Europe decided that new vehicles sold must be 100% CO2-free from 2035. However, this regulation does not oblige manufacturers to only sell electric cars, but to reduce CO2 emissions. to 0, which opens the door to the inclusion of combustion engines using synthetic fuels.
This possibility explains the 2026 review clause, defended in particular by Germany, whose economy is heavily dependent on thermal engines. Among his arguments is that the transition to electric cars will lead to considerable job losses because their manufacturing is less labor intensive.
The EU’s first step towards this technology took the form of an initial draft which proposes a new category to label all internal combustion engine vehicles sold after 2035.
The EU position
Experts have expressed doubts about the possibility of ensuring the effective production of these fuels in sufficient quantities for priority sectors (aviation, trucks) and light passenger vehicles. This would require a large amount of electricity, the supply of which has not been clearly estimated.
Synfuels could be a marginal solution in a set of alternatives (biofuels, hydrogen, electricity, etc.). Ursula von der Leyen said the green transition in transport “will require a technology-neutral approach, in which synthetic fuels will play an important role.”
However, it is not clear whether it refers specifically to cars or other transport sectors.
The devil is in the details
Synthetic fuels are not unanimously accepted, even among German car manufacturers. Audi, for example, recently twice expressed the view that adopting multiple technologies at once would be a mistake due to high costs and investment risks.
In addition, it is difficult to ensure that these new “post-2035” thermal vehicles will only use synthetic fuels and that their drivers will not fill their tanks with gasoline of fossil origin.
Solutions such as boxes that monitor fuel type in real time through spectrum analysis have been proposed, but they are very complex. If a driver cannot find synthetic fuel and resorts to conventional gasoline, the system could detect the fossil fuel and degrade the vehicle’s performance. These complications make the idea of using synthetic fuels on a large scale in cars seem unrealistic at the moment.