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The Cognitive Migration
Cognitive migration is in full swing, and the landscape is bustling. While some have embraced this change, others remain hesitant, questioning whether the journey is worth the potential rewards. Recently, Harvard University Professor and future of work expert Christopher Stanton remarked on the rapid adoption of AI, describing it as an “extraordinarily fast-diffusing technology.” This swift integration and impact set the AI revolution apart from previous technological shifts, such as the personal computer and the internet. Demis Hassabis, CEO of Google DeepMind, has gone so far as to predict that AI could be “10 times bigger than the Industrial Revolution and perhaps 10 times faster.”
As intelligence increasingly becomes a shared commodity between humans and machines, some individuals have begun to incorporate AI into their everyday workflows. A select group has taken it a step further, weaving AI into their cognitive processes and creative endeavors. These early adopters include consultants adept in prompt design, product managers revamping systems, and entrepreneurs launching businesses across various sectors, from coding to product design to marketing. For them, this new terrain appears both novel and navigable, even exhilarating.
Conversely, many others find this moment disconcerting and somewhat overwhelming. Their concerns extend beyond merely being left behind; they grapple with uncertainties about how, when, and whether to invest in AI, a future that feels unpredictable and challenging to envision. This dual challenge of AI readiness is reshaping perceptions regarding the speed, promises, and pressures associated with this transition.
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Across various industries, new roles and teams are emerging, and AI tools are transforming workflows at a pace that often outstrips the development of norms or strategies. However, the significance of these changes remains ambiguous, and the strategies to navigate them are still unclear. The ultimate outcome, if one exists, is uncertain. While some AI industry leaders predict imminent, monumental changes with the arrival of superintelligent machines, others caution that this AI revolution may falter, leading to another “AI winter,” reminiscent of past downturns.
Historically, there have been two notable AI winters. The first occurred in the 1970s due to computational limitations, while the second began in the late 1980s, following a wave of unmet expectations and high-profile failures involving “expert systems.” These winters were characterized by cycles of high hopes followed by deep disappointment, resulting in significant reductions in funding and interest in AI.
If the current enthusiasm surrounding AI agents mirrors the unfulfilled promises of expert systems, we could face another winter. However, substantial differences exist between then and now. Today, there is considerably more institutional support, consumer engagement, and cloud computing infrastructure compared to the expert systems of the 1980s. While there is no assurance that a new winter won’t emerge, if the industry falters this time, it will likely not be due to a lack of financial resources or momentum, but rather a failure of trust and reliability.
The Ongoing Journey
If “the great cognitive migration” is indeed a reality, we are still in the early stages of this journey. Some have embarked on this path, while others remain uncertain about when or if they should join. Amid this uncertainty, the atmosphere has grown restless, akin to travelers sensing an undisclosed change in their itinerary.
Most individuals are employed, yet they contemplate the risks they face as the value of their work evolves. A quiet but growing anxiety simmers beneath the surface of performance reviews and company meetings. AI is already capable of accelerating software development by 10 to 100 times, generating a significant portion of client-facing code, and drastically shortening project timelines. Managers are now utilizing AI for employee performance evaluations. Even classicists and archaeologists have harnessed AI to decode ancient Latin inscriptions. The “willing” have a clearer sense of direction and may find their footing in this rapidly changing landscape.